Dark, desolate, and humidity. Just started in the fall and the rainy season has already barge in the bay area this week, peaking with the unusually strong storm that unloaded nearly a month of rain on Wednesday.
So we are in a wet winter? Our larger brains simply do not know weather.
Meteorologists say that we are experiencing a time of weak La Niña system, which usually winter in the Bay Area are on average a little dryer than usual, but it is far from guaranteed. And though the storms are rare in this time of year, this week's storms were caused by weather systems that no matter how often isolated rains this winter. In fact, forecasts the next day provides a clear sky with temperatures in southern Santa Clara County reach 80 degrees early next week.
Add to unusually wet La Niña winter last season, with the general difficulty in predicting long-term weather forecasts and admit they can not say with confidence what is in store for the near future.
"I have not found a good (winter) provides that I would arrive in my wallet to withdraw money to buy," says Jan Null, a meteorologist with Golden Gate Services Weathered st
The National Weather Service says there is a 33.3 percent chance that this winter will be drier than normal in the Bay Area, and provided 33.3 percent of chances of being wetter than usual. The chances of rainfall being average? That would be 33.3 percent. But forecasters can learn more when climate experts issued a long-term vision winter formal in two weeks.
Forecasters also said the government had no idea whether it will be warmer or colder than normal until the end of the year. However, cooler temperatures are expected early next year.
Deciphering the long-term climate has much to do with the temperature of the Pacific Ocean in Ecuador. Heating the water to create a system of El Niño usually brings heavy storms, while the cold waters produce a La Niña pattern, which is often less rain in the Bay Area. Water temperatures are usually normal storms on average.
This year is supposed to be a weak La Niña season. The last time it happened in 2001 was drier than normal, Null said. The time before, in 1996, was wetter than usual.
"California is probably part of the country where we have the slightest confidence in the winter forecast this year," said Jack Boston, the long-range meteorologist for Accuweather.com, acknowledges the pain of admitting uncertainty.
Duda out on a limb after last year, when everything was ready for a regular old moderate resistance to dry La Niña years. However, due to rain in San Jose, 3.1 percent more than usual last year, finishing with 15.55 inches, with some storms that brought a landslide and flood deposits.
Boston is cautiously predicting this winter to be slightly drier than average in the South Bay, thermometers summer to continue the trend by falling a few degrees on average compared to the typical winter. Here, one can also expect a cold front to send a rush to the back of the west coast from late December to January.
Throughout the evening on Wednesday, 0.37 inches of rain fell in San Jose, and more rain expected later in the night, the entire rainfall was about half of a typical total rainfall in the South Bay in October. Only less than one inch of rainfall in the San Francisco International Airport, for a total of a typical meeting in October.